Everybody agrees that the crisis or correction will come. I can not disagree with that. My idea is that investing (dollar cost averaging) should be more beneficial (Schwab study) than waiting for the crisis to come. It may come but it may be very short and recover very fast. Technically we are in second longest bull market not affected by recession. But the bear market of 1987 was only 3 months.
1987 August 21 the highest was 335.90
1987 December 4 the lowest was 223.92 (33% fall). From that moment The bull market started again.
1989 July 21 it crossed the 335.90 again
Conclusion: timing market is not a good idea.
Prediction: no one knows if crisis will come this year or in next 10 years. And for the reason that there is hugeanticipation that the crisis is near, for that reason I would bet that it might not come soon. Reason #2 is that people still remember 2008. Reason #3 People have too much cash and moderate debt (look at the insane ICOs)
Last week i have posted all of my defaulted loans on secondary market with a 50% discount. None of them moved out for few days. So i raised the discount to 75% and 78 loans were sold. 85% of them were estonian loans. Only 3 HR Spanish loans.
177 defaulted loans left with total principal of 7404€. My profit in the dashboard is 2845€ with net return 10.55%, by my historical portfolio 8.24% and total portfolio 5.3%.
strategy #3. total default 24 loans. Total purchased 242.
Farmcrowdy provides Nigeria’s smallholder farmers with an alternative means to acquire financing to expand or improve their farms by providing them with access to micro-insurance, investors, and buyers. Farmcrowdy’s platform allows potential investors to find farms or crops to invest in and provides them with real-time updates to follow their investments to fruition. Farmcrowdy has a ready market for all supported farm projects and typically presents farm investors with a 15-24% return on investment in 4-12 months.
made few investments with my strategy #3 including not only Spanish loans. 59 Loans bought at secondary market for total of 490€ with average interest rate of 53%
from Stretegy #3 25 loans defaulted out of 148
I analyzed opportunity to create API script for this strategy, but the problem is that Bondora does not allow this ‘search’ functionality and at the moment this can be done only manually. To make 490€ of investments in a quarter took me 30-60 minutes – not that bad ROI per hour spent – i will dedicate this task during Q3 for my assistant and expect to quadruple.
I am trying different investment vehicles / asset classes to find out where can i have the edge. Investing in startups was one of them 2014-2016. I have made 9 investments in startups via Angel List, Crowdcube, Seedrs (UK) and Wefunder. The idea was that i can beat the funds which make nonsense investments. (yes yes. i know ‘beat the market’)
follow on round
exited with 7% roi
second skipped. third 0.6. current valuation 2.8
currently valued at 3.0 (received a cash offer)
current valuation (Revolut + Soothe 2d)
2017 August. Revolut. Attracted 66M investment at 420M valuation. I got a cash offer to sell my shares at x5. Decided to keep, because i believe Revolut can be 4-40 billion company. With exit from Wefunder and current Revolut and Soothe valuations i am close to break-even.