P2P portfolio update: 2017.10 – 2018.04

Previous update here

EstateGuru. I have increased my allocation to 7.5% of my net worth in this platform. Turned off the auto-invest and doing investment manually. I have contacted support for improving the service with more abilities to filter the auto-invest settings, but they refused to do that. I see the biggest risk in projects, where collateral is Land (I rarely invest manually to Land collateral) or some risky projects such as:

 €1.000.000 house 30 minute drive from Tallinn. I am pretty sure that if this house was offered 50% discount from current valuation it would take months to sell it.

All the projects in Curonian Spit are extremely sensitive. The biggest risk with such projects is Government. The numbers might be right, but if they do not get a permit (which by law they technically should get in X amount of time) the numbers fall apart.

EstateGuru is the first P2P lending company I recommend to my friends Get a 0,5% cash back with this referral ID: EGU11239

Bondora. Doing nothing with the account. Auto-invest is turned off. Waiting for more results from #strategy3. After 15 months from the start of this experiment I am approaching 50% mark of defaults. I know that 60% default rate would still bring me good return, but i have a feeling that i will have 70-80% of default from strategy3. The good thing that i put only 0,5% of my networth into this strategy testing, and still with the 75% default rate i think i would not lose the money.

Mintos. I have increased my allocation in this platform to 2.5% of net worth. I converted to all the possible currencies and split the risk between different platforms, currencies. Majority of operators i took those who offer collateral. The bad thing i did i exchanged too many DKK and 80% of this currency sits idle, and none of investments available in both primary and secondary market.

Twino. My lowest allocation.



Housers. They are pushing good ads. I liked especially the one that they claim that real returns are greater than expected. Still they do not convince me

Why I do not like them in short: (longer review here)
1. not clear about the collaterals. Especially on different types of loans.
2. no auto-invest
Maybe later on they will be my next P2P allocation to specific projects where the collateral is clear and understandable. Currently i understand only For buy-to-let and buy-to-sell projects.
USA p2p: PeerStreet, RealtyMogul.
I am thinking  of opening account there. I think it would be a good hedge country and currency wise, especially now when €/$ is @ 1,23. The thing that is stopping me that i have to incorporate in USA (±400$) and hire accountant (500$). So if I invest 50k$ that is 2% fee for first year and 1% fee for next one. Also I have read in many blogs and comments that Auto-invest is also crazy there where majority of projects goes to California.

1 year with Bondora Strategy #3

I have started investing in Bondora in August of 2015 and noticed that loans that default, usually default on first payment. Therefor I came up with strategy #3: invest in HR (high risk) loans, with interest rate 50%+

After almost 12 months, i have following results:

Total loans  523 (473 not repaid yet) loans purchased, with 5483 of principal and 73% interest rate.

Defaulted 109 loans, with principal of 1388€ and interest rate of 75%

So it comes that only 25% of loans defaulted during first year with average interest rate of 74%.

On one hand it seems it should make extremely good returns, but on the other hand the current cash flows does not add up. If i count the cashflows in a simple diminishing way and multiply it by 5 years, the total amount returned will not generate return an might have negative return.

p.s. how do i chek what return i have made on repaid loans ? (523-473=50 repaid loans)

I do not find an answer if my strategy is good or bad.  I even tried manual XIRR calculation suggested by P2P-Banking for all of my portfolio, and I got following results:

Housers investment

I was very bearish on Housers, both as a platform and as equity investment, but as i had 1000€ in the platform after difficulties putting money there, I have invested in 4 projects and after one year i will try to see what the true return will be, as in my opinion.

One thing i see that is already missing in the system is AutoInvest, because i see that i will get monthly returns so i will have to re-invest it manually.


after acquiring 4 projects for 250€ I put them on resale immediately with 20% markup. And in my surprise someone has bought one of my projects and i made 18% return on one property in few months.


P2P portfolio 2017 Q3

Bondora. I did not make additional deposits to Bondora, but I have reinvested profit to #strategy3 High Risk loans. 157 loans for 2148€. Average return 78%. My total size of #strategy3 is 3428€ in almost 300 loans. Only 48 of them defaulted bringing 550€ of loss. My strategy works. Isn’t it ? 🙂 (net return on dashboard 10.2%)

Mintos. Less than 1% of bad debt – actually 0,16%. 12.95% return. During this period Mintos added new new loan originators from Bulgaria, Botswana and Czech Republic. I think i will ad 3k: 1k to each new country/originator. *mintos review

Twino. Their system is fucked up. I see 927€ cash idle. Trying to find loans – have one match. Return 11.99%

Housers. Deposited 1000€ but did not make any investment yet.

Brickowner. Deposited 1000GBP. Made one investment of 100.

Plan for 2017 Q4: Open 3 more accounts.

p.s. found a way to invest idle cash in Twino: created the auto-invest portfolio. 11% with buy-back guarantee in Kazakhstan



selling bad loans on Bondora secondary market

Last week i have posted all of my defaulted loans on secondary market with a 50% discount. None of them moved out for few days. So i raised the discount to 75% and 78 loans were sold. 85% of them were estonian loans. Only 3 HR Spanish loans.
177 defaulted loans left with total principal of 7404€. My profit in the dashboard is 2845€ with net return 10.55%, by my historical portfolio 8.24% and total portfolio 5.3%.

strategy #3.  total default 24 loans. Total purchased 242.

Full Bondora review

p.s. I do not recommend Bondora for safe, automatic, high return investment. If you do register, please use my referral link

Farmcrowdy review

Farmcrowdy provides Nigeria’s smallholder farmers with an alternative means to acquire financing to expand or improve their farms by providing them with access to micro-insurance, investors, and buyers. Farmcrowdy’s platform allows potential investors to find farms or crops to invest in and provides them with real-time updates to follow their investments to fruition. Farmcrowdy has a ready market for all supported farm projects and typically presents farm investors with a 15-24% return on investment in 4-12 months.

Executive team:

Onyeka Akumah    –  Co-Founder & CEO

The person is real and i know him from his previous positions in Konga and Jumia, which was a part of Rocket Internet

The interesting thing about his CV is that he has positions in many companies up to 2 years.

The rest of the team

How do you protect my investment?

P2P portfolio 2017 Q2

2017 Q1 review

2017 Q2


  1. made few investments with my strategy #3 including not only Spanish loans. 59 Loans bought at secondary market for total of 490€ with average interest rate of 53%
  2. from Stretegy #3 25 loans defaulted out of 148
  3. I analyzed opportunity to create API script for this strategy, but the problem is that Bondora does not allow this ‘search’ functionality and at the moment this can be done only manually. To make 490€ of investments in a quarter took me 30-60 minutes – not that bad ROI per hour spent – i will dedicate this task during Q3 for my assistant and expect to quadruple.
  4. Total defaults 8981€. Total profit 4164€


It is totally automated and i like the results. Therefor i will add another 3k in here.


2017 Q1 p2p portfolio review





I removed Twino from that list

  1. the login interface for some reason doesn’t remember the password. So each time i want to login i have to request new one.
  2. I have deposited 2000 during last quarter with auto-invest rules suggested by the support and every time i login i see cash in the account. At the moment 567€ cash in the account


Best P2P for investors

These are peer to peer lending sites i use as investor. I recommend splitting your lending budget equally between each.

Mintos – latvian lending platform operating as a middleman between alternative lending companies in 8 countries (Denmark, Czech Republic, Georgia, Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania). Has loans with buy back guarantee and/or with collateral. My favourite platform – has many good – set it and forget it. My Review of Mintos

Bondora – brings highest interest rates, but system needs constant look. Also i don’t trust their auto-invest tool, so i recommend using the API (which needs time/money to be developed) My Review of Bondora

update 2017 04 01:

Why i don’t like Twino anymore

  1. the login interface for some reason doesn’t remember the password. So each time i want to login i have to request new one.
  2. I have deposited 2000 during last quarter with auto-invest rules suggested by the support and every time i login i see cash in the account. At the moment 567€ cash in the account

Twino – very similar platform to Mintos. The UX and auto-invest functions are little bit less attractive than in Mintos, so that is the only reason why it is #2 in the list.  Also set it and forget it


Mintos review.

Mintos.com is a Latvian based peer to peer marketplace that links borrowers with lenders. Mintos offers various loans including contracts, car loans, small business loans and invoice financing.

 In my opinion the biggest of Mintos is danger of local economic turmoil, as all borrowers are mainly either from Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, or the Czech Republic, yet most loans are secured with real estate, so regardless of the possibility that eastern Europe ought to confront financial times, investors cash is relatively safe, which is one of the reason that makes Mintos truly awesome.

Moreover, all loans on the platform are not being provided by Mintos itself, but rather by outsider loan originators or simply put a third party loan originator. Accordingly, certain loan originators can offer a purchase back assurance, which implies that if the loan is deferred for 60 days.

Account stats for December 10th:

Why i like Mintos?

  • Full featured auto-invest setup.
  • have separate portfolios for separate strategies.
  • possibility to invest in different sectors and different countries.
  • possibility to invest in loans with buy-back guarantee (and of course smaller returns)

p2p investing


Aigars Kesenfelds – the owner of Mintos

The rest of the text is taken from


in case that service is closed or the analysis made dissapears from there. This is the info that every investor should know and consider as a potential risk.

copy of the analysis here:

Mintos Background

Mintos is one of the fastest growing peer-to-peer lending platforms in Continental Europe. They have gained massive momentum by providing investors a platform that allows buying loan claims issued by payday lenders in Eastern Europe. The acquired claims are backed by buyback guarantees.

Buyback guarantee is an insurance product where the platform buys back the claim at nominal value (plus accrued interest) if the underlying loan defaults. In return investors are buying loan claim at a very low interest rate compared to the risk. There are loans available without buyback guarantees but investors have so far primarily acquired loans with these guarantees.

I unfortunately recently discovered that the reasons why I thought Mintos is the best platform in the industry are all lies.

Mintos is bankrupt

Mintos states that “Buy-back guarantee is a guarantee issued by the loan originator to the investor for a particular loan, whereas the loan originator will repurchase the loan from the investor if that particular loan becomes delayed more than 60 days”. In reality investors do not have any claims against the loan originators but against Mintos. When troubles come then investors are left with nothing as Mintos’ balance sheet is nearly 30 times smaller than the outstanding size of the buyback guarantees.

Mintos needs to properly account for buyback guarantees by classifying buyback guarantees as liabilities. Mintos management should thereafter file for bankruptcy protection as they do not have enough assets or reserves to cover the liabilities. This issue should be raised with the regulators and their auditor immediately before Mintos blows up with over 30 million euro of investor money.

Read below to understand why Mintos, not the loan originators, are liable for buyback guarantees.

Mintos is channeling investors’ money to its owner

Mintos states that “At the Mintos marketplace, you will find plenty of loans to invest in. Diversify across loan types, loan originators, and different geographies”. In reality over 80% of the capital is being used to fund the operations of Mintos’ actual founder and CEO Aigars Kesenfelds, the son of a Latvian politician and businessman Ivars Kesenfelds  who financed Aigars’ payday lending businesses initially. Mintos, Mogo, Hipocredit, Lendo and Banknote are all controlled by Aigars Kesenfelds. See below for documents proving the associations.

The outstanding balances of the originators on Mintos make up 80.23% of the outstanding portfolio. The rest of the businesses could have links to Mintos but I was only able to verify ownership details of companies where ultimate owners were registered in Latvia and that had meaningful size.


Capitalia at first seems independent however one of their board members Mārtiņš Krūtainis is also on the board of Hipocredit.

The ownership structure of Creamfinance (6.97% of the outstanding portfolio) lead to Cyprus – a country preferred by Russian capital.

Kredito Garantas, Creditstar, Aforti, Debifo, Acema, Aventus, Mano Unija and Agrocredit are all potentially independent. However they collectively make up only 3.91% of the total portfolio and act only as marketing gimmicks to push the diversification statement.

Scroll below for the supporting documents and more detailed explanation of the ownership structure.

Why is Mintos liable for buyback guarantees?

Mintos is liable for the buyback guarantees instead of the loan originators as the liability for honoring the buyback guarantee has been assigned to Mintos from the loan originator. Subsection 4 of paragraph 5.1.1. of the Assignment Agreement states that:

Mintos, as the representative of the Loan Originator, shall act on behalf of the Loan Originator pursuant the cooperation agreement concluded by and between the Loan Originator and Mintos by carrying out the following activities: 4) in case the buyback right of the Loan Originator is exercised, pay the buyback price of the Claim to the Assignee.

The assignment agreement further goes to state that buyback guarantee is a right of the loan originator, not its obligation. Only in case the collateral is sold or borrower is declared insolvent by court (which never happens with personal loans), does the loan originator have the liability to exercise the buyback right. However it still needs to be honored by Mintos.

11.2. The Loan Originator has the right, but not an obligation to use its buyback rightsin any of the following events:
11.2.1. the Borrowers delays the payments arising from the Loan Agreement by more than 60 (sixty) days;
11.2.2. the Assignee has fully or partially recalled the authorization included in the Agreement or the Terms and Conditions of the Portal User;
11.2.3. Mintos pursuant to the Terms and Conditions of the Portal User has limited the Assignee’s rights to use the Portal;
11.2.4. in event of early termination of the Agreement;
11.2.5. pursuant to unilateral decision of the Loan Originator.
11.7. In addition to the provisions specified in Clause 11.2 of the General Terms and Conditions, if the sale of the Collateral or insolvency proceedings of the Borrower are commenced, the Loan Originator immediately exercises buyback rights granted to it by Mintos giving written notice thereof to the Assignee at its email address. Buyback rights specified in this Clause are exercised by the Loan Originator in the interests of the Assignee to ensure that the proceeds obtained from the sale of the Collateral are used to cover the Claim owned by the Assignee. As of the date of notice by Mintos to the Assignee, the Claim is considered sold back and transferred to the Loan Originator.

Why is this dangerous for investors?

Mintos states that “Every loan on the Mintos marketplace is pre-funded by the respective loan originator, which, moreover, will keep a certain percentage of the loan on its balance sheet. As the result, the incentives of loan originators and investors are aligned.” In reality Aigars Kesenfelds has designed a structure whereby funds from individual investors are directed to his companies at very low interest rates compared to the risks the companies are taking with all risks staying with the investor.

1) In case the loan performs then the loan originator is making up to 138% return on the loans (https://lendo.ge/ is issuing loans at 150% interest rates and passing only 12% to investors).
2) In addition they are making up to 7.5% of the loan amount on issuing the loan by service fees (In Latvia: https://www.mogo.lv/lv/kalkulators/ – Līguma noformēšanas komisija 7,5% no aizdevuma summas, bet ne mazāk kā 150 EUR; 7,5% no līzinga summas, bet ne mazāk kā 150 EUR)
3) In case the loan does not perform there is no liability for the loan originator as they have assigned the principal claim, plus a small share of the interest, to the investors on Mintos.
4) In case they have sold the loan with a buyback guarantee then they do not have to honor it as by law this liability has been passed to Mintos, a shell company with no meaningful assets and equity.
5) The companies are supposedly keeping a small 10% neck-in-the-game share of the loan to align risks. However point 1 and 2 above shows that this is only cosmetic and in practice they do not have to put any capital aside or get this capital back already in a month or so.

In other words – Aigars is able to earn spreads of 100%+ on loan portfolios where he has not committed any capital himself and where risks are all pushed to individual investors whilst returns all kept to himself.

How are Mintos and loan originators connected?

My research is based on public company registry information available in Latvia as well as basic online searched in LinkedIn and Google. I have enclosed the original documents as well as simplified overviews created based on this information.

List in Excel: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzUlVOQ1ZvZU5hc2c
Relationship Map 1: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzRnZYM01GRXpIYWs
Relationship Map 2: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzRmJMeFlWeUpEajQ

Many of the people shared between companies are actually employees of FORT Law who probably is offering nominee services for Aigars to be able to cover up true ownership. You will find that 6 companies have board/council members who actually work here: http://fortlegal.com/people/

AS Mintos Holdings is a shareholder for AS Mintos Marketplace. AS Skillion Ventures is a shareholder for AS Mintos Holdings. AS Skillion Ventures is in turn is owned by Aigars Kesenfelds. AS Skillion Ventures is also the owner of AS Hipocredit. Skillion/Aigars Kesenfelds is also the owner of the Mogo and SIA “ExpressCredit” (Banknote). Lendo is owned by SIA “EC Investments” which in turn is owned by SIA “ExpressCredit”

News story on Aigars launching Skillion Ventures:http://www.db.lv/tehnologijas/kesenfelds-juniors-sak-jaunu-biznesa-projektu-238647
Mintos Holdings registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzQXRWcDR0TUxXa2M
Mintos Marketplace registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzT2VMZkNNRjAxWUU

HIPOCREDIT – Joint Stock Company “Hipocredit”. The Board and the Council are the same as for MINTOS (AS Mintos Holdings and AS Mintos Marketplace), AS Skillion Ventures and AS Mogo.

Hipocredit registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzMFdqUzNUaGZRREU

BANKNOTE – Limited Liability Company “Express Credit”. 3 Council Members, from which all are also represented in other companies like Mogo, EC Investments, Mintos and Skillion Ventures. Aigars Kesenfelds is an owner of the company, based on his LinkedIn profile. SIA AE Consulting and SIA Lombards24.lv are the Shareholders for Banknote (SIA Expresskredit) LV, and all three companies share the same Shareholders/Board members.

ExpressCredit registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzT25OVmNoOThXU3M

Mogo – Joint Stock Company “Mogo”. The Council consists of 5 Members, from which three members are also in other companies such as MINTOS, Banknote, EC Investments, Skillion Ventures and Hipocredit. Aigars Kesenfelds is an owner of the company, based on his LinkedIn profile. Previously AS Skillion Ventures was also publicly shown as an owner (see visual map above).

Mogo registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzMmdUMkRWbDFZazA

LLC Lendo is owned by SIA “EC Investments” which is owned by SIA “ExpressCredit” (Banknote).
EC Investments, SIA – same shareholders with AS Mogo, SIA “AE Consulting”, Banknote (SIA Expresskredit) LV, AS Mintos Marketplace (LV), AS Mintos Holdings (LV), AS Skillion Ventures (LV). Lendo LLC, SIA “Lombards24.lv”, SIA “AE Consulting”. EC Investments managers have previously been on the board of AS Skillion ventures.

Lendo registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzbjl3ckZQNmRab0U

Capitalia – Joint Stock Company “Capitalia”. Council has 3 members, from which the Chairman is also a member of the Council in AS Hipocredit. AS Capitalia has a pledge of Creamfinance.

Capitalia registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJza0gxSTZDbHh0MUU

CREAM FINANCE – Limited Liability Company “CREAM Finance”. AS Capitalia has a pledge of Creamfinance

Creamfinance registry extract: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B2xTRapiRmJzdU05RlVvdUVVWEU