P2P portfolio update 2018.04 – 2018.10

26% of my networth is invested in P2P

The biggest move during 6 months is my allocation to EstateGuru, where 44% of my P2p investments are. I still believe this is one of the best platforms to start investing. Though as I have noticed in previous portfolio update, there are some high price projects that in my opinion are too risky. And this is the case/example where same location expensive property is late with payments. I made almost all investments manually in last 6 months and now i turned back the auto-invest just with a minimum investment amount per loan.

Bondora. My allocation 7%. Currently i see 1k of future loss or -1% compound loss. This is mainly due to my playing with High Risk unsecured loans. (#strategy3). I am withdrawing the returned principal and interest and not making any new investments for more than 6 months already. I feel sad about the Estonian founder who was named by Forbes as 30 under 30. Lack of transparency is destroying this company.

Housers. I was very bearish on the platform. Their system is quite difficult to understand. They lack simple explanations. They do not have Auto-Invest. Their English support is poor. (read full review)

I had few calls  with and changed my mind increasing allocation 5x and now I allocate 21% of my P2P funds. As the investments are manual, i invest only in Spain and Portugal and avoid the Italy. I have some loans already returned and the actual return is better than advertised (I guess mainly due to real estate price appreciation in Spain).

Mintos. My allocation here is 24%. And from the last post I increased it by 200%. My account is quite healthy with minimum defaults or late 60days+.

My strategy is to choose low risk loan originators with collateral or buy back programs. I avoid car loans. Biggest allocation is to EBV Finance, as I know the owner and understand the risks of the business (Fraud and EU country default). Other allocations are approximately 1k per loan originator

Brickowner and Twino I can not say nothing bad about the platforms, but i am waiting to get the principal back and leaving those platforms. The first has very low deal flow. And the second is very similar in terms of loans/risks to Mintos.

P2P portfolio update: 2017.10 – 2018.04

Previous update here

EstateGuru. I have increased my allocation to 7.5% of my net worth in this platform. Turned off the auto-invest and doing investment manually. I have contacted support for improving the service with more abilities to filter the auto-invest settings, but they refused to do that. I see the biggest risk in projects, where collateral is Land (I rarely invest manually to Land collateral) or some risky projects such as:

 €1.000.000 house 30 minute drive from Tallinn. I am pretty sure that if this house was offered 50% discount from current valuation it would take months to sell it.

All the projects in Curonian Spit are extremely sensitive. The biggest risk with such projects is Government. The numbers might be right, but if they do not get a permit (which by law they technically should get in X amount of time) the numbers fall apart.

EstateGuru is the first P2P lending company I recommend to my friends Get a 0,5% cash back with this referral ID: EGU11239

Bondora. Doing nothing with the account. Auto-invest is turned off. Waiting for more results from #strategy3. After 15 months from the start of this experiment I am approaching 50% mark of defaults. I know that 60% default rate would still bring me good return, but i have a feeling that i will have 70-80% of default from strategy3. The good thing that i put only 0,5% of my networth into this strategy testing, and still with the 75% default rate i think i would not lose the money.

Mintos. I have increased my allocation in this platform to 2.5% of net worth. I converted to all the possible currencies and split the risk between different platforms, currencies. Majority of operators i took those who offer collateral. The bad thing i did i exchanged too many DKK and 80% of this currency sits idle, and none of investments available in both primary and secondary market.

Twino. My lowest allocation.

 

 

Housers. They are pushing good ads. I liked especially the one that they claim that real returns are greater than expected. Still they do not convince me

Why I do not like them in short: (longer review here)
1. not clear about the collaterals. Especially on different types of loans.
2. no auto-invest
Maybe later on they will be my next P2P allocation to specific projects where the collateral is clear and understandable. Currently i understand only For buy-to-let and buy-to-sell projects.
USA p2p: PeerStreet, RealtyMogul.
I am thinking  of opening account there. I think it would be a good hedge country and currency wise, especially now when €/$ is @ 1,23. The thing that is stopping me that i have to incorporate in USA (±400$) and hire accountant (500$). So if I invest 50k$ that is 2% fee for first year and 1% fee for next one. Also I have read in many blogs and comments that Auto-invest is also crazy there where majority of projects goes to California.

1 year with Bondora Strategy #3

I have started investing in Bondora in August of 2015 and noticed that loans that default, usually default on first payment. Therefor I came up with strategy #3: invest in HR (high risk) loans, with interest rate 50%+

After almost 12 months, i have following results:

Total loans  523 (473 not repaid yet) loans purchased, with 5483 of principal and 73% interest rate.

Defaulted 109 loans, with principal of 1388€ and interest rate of 75%

So it comes that only 25% of loans defaulted during first year with average interest rate of 74%.

On one hand it seems it should make extremely good returns, but on the other hand the current cash flows does not add up. If i count the cashflows in a simple diminishing way and multiply it by 5 years, the total amount returned will not generate return an might have negative return.

p.s. how do i chek what return i have made on repaid loans ? (523-473=50 repaid loans)

I do not find an answer if my strategy is good or bad.  I even tried manual XIRR calculation suggested by P2P-Banking for all of my portfolio, and I got following results:

Housers investment

I was very bearish on Housers, both as a platform and as equity investment, but as i had 1000€ in the platform after difficulties putting money there, I have invested in 4 projects and after one year i will try to see what the true return will be, as in my opinion.

One thing i see that is already missing in the system is AutoInvest, because i see that i will get monthly returns so i will have to re-invest it manually.

 

after acquiring 4 projects for 250€ I put them on resale immediately with 20% markup. And in my surprise someone has bought one of my projects and i made 18% return on one property in few months.

 

P2P portfolio 2017 Q3

Bondora. I did not make additional deposits to Bondora, but I have reinvested profit to #strategy3 High Risk loans. 157 loans for 2148€. Average return 78%. My total size of #strategy3 is 3428€ in almost 300 loans. Only 48 of them defaulted bringing 550€ of loss. My strategy works. Isn’t it ? 🙂 (net return on dashboard 10.2%)

Mintos. Less than 1% of bad debt – actually 0,16%. 12.95% return. During this period Mintos added new new loan originators from Bulgaria, Botswana and Czech Republic. I think i will ad 3k: 1k to each new country/originator. *mintos review

Twino. Their system is fucked up. I see 927€ cash idle. Trying to find loans – have one match. Return 11.99%

Housers. Deposited 1000€ but did not make any investment yet.

Brickowner. Deposited 1000GBP. Made one investment of 100.

Plan for 2017 Q4: Open 3 more accounts.

p.s. found a way to invest idle cash in Twino: created the auto-invest portfolio. 11% with buy-back guarantee in Kazakhstan

 

 

selling bad loans on Bondora secondary market

Last week i have posted all of my defaulted loans on secondary market with a 50% discount. None of them moved out for few days. So i raised the discount to 75% and 78 loans were sold. 85% of them were estonian loans. Only 3 HR Spanish loans.
177 defaulted loans left with total principal of 7404€. My profit in the dashboard is 2845€ with net return 10.55%, by my historical portfolio 8.24% and total portfolio 5.3%.

strategy #3.  total default 24 loans. Total purchased 242.

Full Bondora review

p.s. I do not recommend Bondora for safe, automatic, high return investment. If you do register, please use my referral link

Farmcrowdy review

Farmcrowdy provides Nigeria’s smallholder farmers with an alternative means to acquire financing to expand or improve their farms by providing them with access to micro-insurance, investors, and buyers. Farmcrowdy’s platform allows potential investors to find farms or crops to invest in and provides them with real-time updates to follow their investments to fruition. Farmcrowdy has a ready market for all supported farm projects and typically presents farm investors with a 15-24% return on investment in 4-12 months.

Executive team:

Onyeka Akumah    –  Co-Founder & CEO

The person is real and i know him from his previous positions in Konga and Jumia, which was a part of Rocket Internet

The interesting thing about his CV is that he has positions in many companies up to 2 years.

The rest of the team

How do you protect my investment?

P2P portfolio 2017 Q2

2017 Q1 review

2017 Q2

Bondora

  1. made few investments with my strategy #3 including not only Spanish loans. 59 Loans bought at secondary market for total of 490€ with average interest rate of 53%
  2. from Stretegy #3 25 loans defaulted out of 148
  3. I analyzed opportunity to create API script for this strategy, but the problem is that Bondora does not allow this ‘search’ functionality and at the moment this can be done only manually. To make 490€ of investments in a quarter took me 30-60 minutes – not that bad ROI per hour spent – i will dedicate this task during Q3 for my assistant and expect to quadruple.
  4. Total defaults 8981€. Total profit 4164€

Mintos

It is totally automated and i like the results. Therefor i will add another 3k in here.

 

2017 Q1 p2p portfolio review

Mintos

 

Bondora

Twino

I removed Twino from that list

  1. the login interface for some reason doesn’t remember the password. So each time i want to login i have to request new one.
  2. I have deposited 2000 during last quarter with auto-invest rules suggested by the support and every time i login i see cash in the account. At the moment 567€ cash in the account

 

Best P2P for investors

These are peer to peer lending sites i use as investor. I recommend splitting your lending budget equally between each.

Mintos – latvian lending platform operating as a middleman between alternative lending companies in 8 countries (Denmark, Czech Republic, Georgia, Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania). Has loans with buy back guarantee and/or with collateral. My favourite platform – has many good – set it and forget it. My Review of Mintos

Bondora – brings highest interest rates, but system needs constant look. Also i don’t trust their auto-invest tool, so i recommend using the API (which needs time/money to be developed) My Review of Bondora

update 2017 04 01:

Why i don’t like Twino anymore

  1. the login interface for some reason doesn’t remember the password. So each time i want to login i have to request new one.
  2. I have deposited 2000 during last quarter with auto-invest rules suggested by the support and every time i login i see cash in the account. At the moment 567€ cash in the account

Twino – very similar platform to Mintos. The UX and auto-invest functions are little bit less attractive than in Mintos, so that is the only reason why it is #2 in the list.  Also set it and forget it