So I got some cash idle in account after the crypto arbitrage and though we have 9 year bull market and even such tables:
1997 -2000 +2x
2000 -2002 -50%
2002 -2007 +2x
2007 – 2009 -50%
2009 -2018 +~3x
I still believe there is 50/50 chance for Bull/Bear market in next 10 years. (currentS&P500 is @ 2767)
My initial idea with stock market was to make an passive index myself, buying stocks from S&P500 for the same amount. Buy i noticed it takes too much time, so i decided to go for the index funds and delete the IB trader app from my laptop.
The problem: foreigners can not buy low cost Vanguard index funds. The solution: I decided to buy iShares ETFs by BlackRock.
I have chosen:
- ITOT Expense ratio 0.03%. (6.6% of my stock portfolio)
- IJR Expense ratio 0.07%. (15% of my stock portfolio) (Small cap companies)
- ICOL Expense ratio 0.61% (9% of my stock portfolio) (Columbia)
- QQQC Expense ratio 0.65% (10% of my stock portfolio) (Chinese tech companies)
My current strategy is to continue investing in P2P loans with collateral, after the market crash of 20%+ start accumulating ITOT.
- 40% of my stock portfolio is invested in indexes/ETFs
- 9% of my net worth is invested in stock market.
- 6.8% of all stock portfolio is in Softbank
Currently i hold these stocks:
I have invested in Billion To One a startup that is trying to make prenatal testing easy/cheap and safe. Even though i stopped my first ”fund” of startups, I have chosen to invest in this particular one because i believe and support their mission:
Our mission is to make prenatal diagnostics safe and affordable for all.
If there will be 1% advance in prenatal testing made and i will lose all my investment – I will be happy with the outcome
Everybody agrees that the crisis or correction will come. I can not disagree with that. My idea is that investing (dollar cost averaging) should be more beneficial (Schwab study) than waiting for the crisis to come. It may come but it may be very short and recover very fast. Technically we are in second longest bull market not affected by recession. But the bear market of 1987 was only 3 months.
1987 August 21 the highest was 335.90
1987 December 4 the lowest was 223.92 (33% fall). From that moment The bull market started again.
1989 July 21 it crossed the 335.90 again
Conclusion: timing market is not a good idea.
Prediction: no one knows if crisis will come this year or in next 10 years. And for the reason that there is huge anticipation that the crisis is near, for that reason I would bet that it might not come soon. Reason #2 is that people still remember 2008. Reason #3 People have too much cash and moderate debt (look at the insane ICOs)
After reading a dozen of articles that low cost index funds beat individual stock pickers, i was not convinced, that i can not pick individual stocks better.
I was very bullish on Rocket Internet RKET. I was buying RKET at 15-19€ and selling 19-23€.
Why i am not buying individual stocks anymore:
- It takes too much time to monitor the news, rumors and stock price.
- There is high risk with individual stocks.
- S&P 500 at the same time made +25% compared to mine 19%
Another great example is TV series Billions, that shows stock market manipulation by billionaires.
Warren Buffet 1M bet