Coming back to crypto

I am coming back to crypto. Dollar cost averaging only BTC. AVG price 3500€. Will hold for very long. First bitcoin will sell at 50k $, second at 250k $ and the third will pay for my kids education.

My main conviction for BTC is that is better store of value than gold, and with my generation the ratio of gold/btc will change in the favor of later.

Crypto arbitrage

Lots of my friends ask me if I am in crypto. What do they usually mean, when they ask this ‘if i am trading cryptocurrencies’. And the answer is no and i do not recommend doing this to any of my friends.

I did cryptocurrency buy/sell in a period of 20 days and doubled my money, but I saw this is too dumb/risky for me. Then i noticed that the prices for cryptos differ in exchanges. For example it was very common that BTC was 10% more expensive in South Korea than in USA. At some point it was even 43% arbitrage. Continue reading

Cryptocurrency investment

I am back to crypto for the long time

Being interested in Cryptocurrencies from 2017 July and thinking about investing in different ICOs or Coins finally I made 1,5% of my networth investment in cryptocurrencies.

I exit my investment in 5 years or if any of coins will get 10X.

The process:

  1. I opened account at Kraken (ETH, BTC, LTC) and Bitfinex (IOTA, NEO, EOS)
  2. Did verification of corporate account in Kraken. (didn’t do the verification in bitfinex, because i did not deposit/withdraw fiat currencies there). Verification in Kraken was quite easy. Some general questions and documents, 2 days of waiting and verified. (though i do not recommend Kraken for the constantly crashing website, as well i do not recommend Bitfinex after reading this article)
  3. Deposited 1.5% of my networth. (amount not significant to fully lose, and a good lottery ticket)
  4. decided on portfolio structure:
  • BTC 30% store of value. (gold)
  • ETH 40% smart contracts, base currency for all other new services/currencies.
  • LTC 15% strong leadership, common form of payment.
  •  MIOTA 5% coin for Internet of Things transactions.
  • NEO 5% better version of Chinese Etherium
  • EOS 5% just got a recommendation from friend who runs Currexy.com

The real portfolio ended up like this: (made some mistakes with currency pairs and/or exchanges. Be careful – write everything on paper before executing)

5. For tracking portfolio i setuped CryptoCompare (they do not have official App)

6. I created paper wallets (except EOS) and moved half of investment from exchange to paper wallet

my private keys on self made (wife made) paper wallet

7. My initial strategy was to hold it for 5 years or 10x, but after the bull rally after 7-9 from my investment, i decided that the volatility is too high here, and changed strategy to cash out half of coins (take back investment) and other half leave for 5 years.

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Values of cryptos at the day of investing were 250M

For the BTC, it reached the highest price ever. I was waiting for BTC to go down for a long time. First i wanted to buy it at 3k (as i calculated that that 1% of Gold in the planet is equal to 1 BTC) then it was trading at 5.5k usd so i waited it to drop to 5k)

The side effects of investing in cryptos:

  1. there is some kind of paranoia while making paper wallets and writing them down. Article on other paranoias related to crypto
  2. even though I invested only 1.5% of my NW, I noticed that i spend 50% of my time at the computer, reading about Crypto and checking life portfolio.

Blockchain Graveyard. Crypto incidents

December 10th. I started exiting my positions, because the market started flooding with fools money. And in my opinion the last fool will pay that. Not only i have read about people mortgaging their houses or selling cars to invest in bitcoin, but even from my circle I knew people who borrow money with huge interest to buy bitcoin or 14 year old kids investing in cryptos (it is not bad to invest in cryptos, but the portfolio should be in other asset classes as well).

Bitcoin – millennials fake gold

So in 20 days, I have made 70% on my initial investment and added 1% of my networth. It may seem quite little, but stick to Warren Buffett’s rule ‘never lose the money’

Final thoughts

I learned a lot doing real trading.

After closing IOTA positions, i do not understand why it is #4 currency. To transfer mIotas from paper wallet to Bitfinex took me 3 days and some hours of reading.

EOS #11 currency does not have paper wallet.

I know i might return to crypto assets when the market cools down. I would invest in platforms EOS, NEO, Cardano or something similar.

I do not recommend my friends to invest in crypto now. But if you do that, make a portfolio of 5 or more and do not use Kraken as I did and invest amount you can freely spend during night out. Do the account opening now – because it takes time or just use Revolut to purchase 3 main cryptos

I will return to cryptos after 80% crash which i believe will happen soon.

My prediction is that we will have a snowball effect when some of the currencies crashes. For example Bitconnect, which is a absolute scam (who can pay 1% interest a day?).

Bitconnect crashed. There was basically no effect on the market. Something scammy and not transparent is happening with Tether (crypto linked to USD, which was created by Bitfinex – biggest exchange in the world)

2018 NovemberI am coming back to crypto

Bankera ICO. Why not to invest in pre-ico?

The good

  • Based on already working project SpectroCoin
  • Paying dividends from day one
  • Reputable team

The Bad

  • Low ROI on affiliate/dividend earning.
  • No EU regulations yet and it might take longer than expected
  • Spectrocoin claims making 500k/day in transaction, but they are not found in here

Things to consider

If pre-ICO raises 499.999.999 BNK, or 5.000.000 € (the lowest step) [total valuation 50m]

Current Spectrocoin profit is ±225k € (by the way my comment and their reply has been deleted from facebook feed) and the dividend for token holders are 40k (0,5M / year)

Dividend only 1%, if the first volume step is funded. (if the second one or third the yield gets even lower)

Another similar Estonian/Russian bank Polybius has a valuation of 25M. (i have a very small ‘play-money’ in it and my personal investment is down ±20%)

Prediction

I will not invest in pre-ico, because it is pure gambling, but i do not say that i will not invest in ico or after ico, when the valuation of company is in range of 10-25M

 

 

Very unprofessional video for a company that claims making 2M of profits per year currently. Antanas Guoga TonyG a very charismatic person, public figure and good speaker this time seems like speaking so difficult to understand for the beginners or the pros. And the interviewer from the marketing reading from the A4 pages looks like unprepared school girl.

 

 

Insane ICO. Insane TenX

TenX hit 0.5 billion valuation today. Insane. I already wrote that TenX is overvalued when it had 80M valuation, but current valuation is Insane for the company that does not have a product yet. And why does TenX have 10-15x higher valuation than Mona.co or Tokencard?

And what i used miss all the time that real valuation is almost 2x, because not all the coins are circulating and current market capitalization is counted only with circulating coins.

 

Startup vs ICO. Revolut vs TenX

I have invested in Revolut, my friend invested in TenX. Both have a similar service: free currency exchange bank card

RevolutTenX
Valuation55M (2016 June)80M (2017 June)
Does it have a product?Yes. 200k users at that time.Not public. 1000 Beta testers.
New users per day15000
Competitive advantageFree currency exchange0.1% cashback on spent cryptocurrency
CompetitorsN26Mona.co
valuation 2017 08420M420M
active users 2017 08500.0000

After Revolut announced that it will ad 3 main cryptocurrencies to its app – what is the competitive advantage of TenX then?

What valuation would i give?

5-10M: ±12 times! less than it is now. Competitor Monaco has now a 9M valuation