1 year with Bondora Strategy #3

I have started investing in Bondora in August of 2015 and noticed that loans that default, usually default on first payment. Therefor I came up with strategy #3: invest in HR (high risk) loans, with interest rate 50%+

After almost 12 months, i have following results:

Total loans 484 loans purchased, with 5513€ of principal and 73% interest rate.

Defaulted 89 loans, with principal of 980€ and interest rate of 75%

So it comes that only 18% of loans defaulted during first year with average interest rate of 74%.

On one hand it seems it should make extremely good returns, but on the other hand the current cash flows does not add up.

I do not find an answer if my strategy is good or bad.  I even tried manual XIRR calculation suggested by P2P-Banking for all of my portfolio, and I got following results:

Cryptocurrency investment

Being interested in Cryptocurrencies from 2017 July and thinking about investing in different ICOs or Coins finally I made 1,5% of my networth investment in cryptocurrencies.

I exit my investment in 5 years or if any of coins will get 10X.

The process:

  1. I opened account at Kraken (ETH, BTC, LTC) and Bitfinex (IOTA, NEO, EOS)
  2. Did verification of corporate account in Kraken. (didn’t do the verification in bitfinex, because i did not deposit/withdraw fiat currencies there). Verification in Kraken was quite easy. Some general questions and documents, 2 days of waiting and verified. (though i do not recommend Kraken for the constantly crashing website, as well i do not recommend Bitfinex after reading this article)
  3. Deposited 1.5% of my networth. (amount not significant to fully lose, and a good lottery ticket)
  4. decided on portfolio structure:
  • BTC 30% store of value. (gold)
  • ETH 40% smart contracts, base currency for all other new services/currencies.
  • LTC 15% strong leadership, common form of payment.
  •  MIOTA 5% coin for Internet of Things transactions.
  • NEO 5% better version of Chinese Etherium
  • EOS 5% just got a recommendation from friend who runs Currexy.com

The real portfolio ended up like this: (made some mistakes with currency pairs and/or exchanges. Be careful – write everything on paper before executing)

5. For tracking portfolio i setuped CryptoCompare (they do not have official App)

6. I created paper wallets (except EOS) and moved half of investment from exchange to paper wallet

my private keys on self made (wife made) paper wallet

7. My initial strategy was to hold it for 5 years or 10x, but after the bull rally after 7-9 from my investment, i decided that the volatility is too high here, and changed strategy to cash out half of coins (take back investment) and other half leave for 5 years.

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Values of cryptos at the day of investing.

For the BTC, it reached the highest price ever. I was waiting for BTC to go down for a long time. First i wanted to buy it at 3k (as i calculated that that 1% of Gold in the planet is equal to 1 BTC) then it was trading at 5.5k usd so i waited it to drop to 5k)

The side effects of investing in cryptos:

  1. there is some kind of paranoia while making paper wallets and writing them down. Article on other paranoias related to crypto
  2. even though I invested only 1.5% of my NW, I noticed that i spend 20% of my time reading about Crypto and checking life portfolio.

December 10th. I started exiting my positions, because the market started flooding with fools money. And in my opinion the last fool will pay that. Not only i have read about people mortgaging their houses or selling cars to invest in bitcoin, but even from my circle I knew people who borrow money with huge interest to buy bitcoin or 14 year old kids investing in cryptos (it is not bad to invest in cryptos, but the portfolio should be in other asset classes as well).

So in 20 days, I have made 70% on my initial investment and added 1% of my networth. It may seem quite little, but stick to Warren Buffett’s rule ‘never lose the money’

Final thoughts

I learned a lot doing real trading.

After closing IOTA positions, i do not understand why it is #4 currency. To transfer mIotas from paper wallet to Bitfinex took me 3 days and some hours of reading.

EOS #11 currency does not have paper wallet.

I know i might return to crypto assets when the market cools down. I would invest in platforms EOS, NEO, IOTA or something similar.

I do not recommend my friends to invest in crypto now. But if you do that, make a portfolio of 5 or more and do not use Kraken as I did and invest amount you can freely spend during night out. Do the account opening now – because it takes time or just use Revolut to purchase 3 main cryptos

Housers investment

I was very bearish on Housers, both as a platform and as equity investment, but as i had 1000€ in the platform after difficulties putting money there, I have invested in 4 projects and after one year i will try to see what the true return will be, as in my opinion.

One thing i see that is already missing in the system is AutoInvest, because i see that i will get monthly returns so i will have to re-invest it manually.

 

some projects will have negative ROI

Brickowner vs Housers equity

I believe the lean P2P companies will eat the banks in the near future. I commited 5k investment in equity of Brickowner and now thinking about getting the equity in Housers

In Brickowner i invested as a client and in Housers i have just made a deposit, but didn’t choose any property yet. Even though they have 60 employees their customer support sucks and the company itself is not clear for me. Who are they and what they do? Whom the projects belong to? Who is the lemonway (deposit is made to them)? What is the purpose of 2 subsidiaries which they own at 64% and 70%?

 HousersBrickownerEstateGuru
2017 October raising850k @ 44M 120k @ 2,5Mtotal raised 117k
Loans issued up to date *M320,2730
ProsPan EuropeanLean companyLean and transparent company
Cons60 employeesFew properties for investorsServing 3 small markets

Finally i decide to skip investing in Housers equity because there are too many unanswered question to which they hide “For confidentality issues” we can not answer you….

 

Property Partners
March 2016 – Property Partner raised a £15.9m Series B in March 2016. Valuation: £60m pre-money
⎝ Run rate of aprox. 2.4 million pounds monthly at the time of investment
o https://www.propertypartner.co/
o https://resources.propertypartner.co/
Other relevant data
⎝ Actual run rate of 2.7 million pounds in August 2017
o https://www.propertypartner.co/
o https://resources.propertypartner.co/
⎝ This is done with a leverage of almost 50% in most of their projects
⎝ Just one country
Time since company being incorporated
⎝ Funded in 28 May 2014 – more time to get to the 2-5 mn. mark

Exporo
May 2017: Capital Round of €8 million at €59 million pre-money
⎝ Run rate at the time of the round of €3.4 m – €4m
o (https://www.gruenderszene.de/allgemein/exporo-erhaelt-weitere-acht-millionen)
⎝ Just one country
⎝ Funded in 2013 – more than to achieve the 2.5 mn. Mark

The House Crowd
⎝ Actual Run rate of 2.5 million pounds,
o In 20 July 2017 -The House Crowd has raised £15m in the past six months, taking its total fundraising to date to £50m.
♣ http://www.propertyweek.com/finance/the-house-crowd-hits-%C2%A350m-milestone/5090523.article
⎝ Just one country
⎝ Funded in 29 December 2011 – more than to achieve the 2.5 mn. mark

Housers
⎝ Actual run rate of approx. 2.5 million euros
⎝ Presence in 1 country plus 2 additional (starting), 95% of investment comes only from Spain. First of the previous offering properties in 3 countries
⎝ Funded in 2015 (latest player – faster growth)- Less months to get to the €2.5 m. mark
⎝ Country with lower purchasing power (less consumption and investment per habitant)

Revolut vs N26

I have been using both services for more than 6 months. I would say the Revolut was better in the beginning, but then were were two reasons why i switched to N26

  1. I reached the limit in Revolut and lifting 3 times was pain in the ass, and finally i was too bored to do that again.
  2. I need more than 200€ of cash every month.

Which is better?

If I could choose only one, i would choose N26 just because of the withdrawal. In general having both is good option and sometimes convenience especially if that card is dominant card in your country – so you can send money easy for your nanny or split the bills with friends.

 RevolutN26
Free withdrawal in Spain200€5000€
User experienceClear winner. Super easy and intuitive.The could just copy the Revolut here 🙂 especially that the card number could be visible in the app
Customer supportin app. with delaysold school email writing.
Apple PayNOYES
CryptocurrenciesBTC, ETH, LTCnone

p.s. I am investor in Revolut

P2P portfolio 2017 Q3

Bondora. I did not make additional deposits to Bondora, but I have reinvested profit to #strategy3 High Risk loans. 157 loans for 2148€. Average return 78%. My total size of #strategy3 is 3428€ in almost 300 loans. Only 48 of them defaulted bringing 550€ of loss. My strategy works. Isn’t it ? 🙂 (net return on dashboard 10.2%)

Mintos. Less than 1% of bad debt – actually 0,16%. 12.95% return. During this period Mintos added new new loan originators from Bulgaria, Botswana and Czech Republic. I think i will ad 3k: 1k to each new country/originator. *mintos review

Twino. Their system is fucked up. I see 927€ cash idle. Trying to find loans – have one match. Return 11.99%

Housers. Deposited 1000€ but did not make any investment yet.

Brickowner. Deposited 1000GBP. Made one investment of 100.

Plan for 2017 Q4: Open 3 more accounts.

p.s. found a way to invest idle cash in Twino: created the auto-invest portfolio. 11% with buy-back guarantee in Kazakhstan

 

 

BillionToOne investment

I have invested in Billion To One a startup that is trying to make prenatal testing easy/cheap and safe. Even though i stopped my first ”fund” of startups, I have chosen to invest in this particular one because i believe and support their mission:

Our mission is to make prenatal diagnostics safe and affordable for all.

If there will be 1% advance in prenatal testing made and  i will lose all my investment – I will be happy with the outcome

Bankera ICO. Why not to invest in pre-ico?

The good

  • Based on already working project SpectroCoin
  • Paying dividends from day one
  • Reputable team

The Bad

  • Low ROI on affiliate/dividend earning.
  • No EU regulations yet and it might take longer than expected
  • Spectrocoin claims making 500k/day in transaction, but they are not found in here

Things to consider

If pre-ICO raises 499.999.999 BNK, or 5.000.000 € (the lowest step) [total valuation 50m]

Current Spectrocoin profit is ±225k € (by the way my comment and their reply has been deleted from facebook feed) and the dividend for token holders are 40k (0,5M / year)

Dividend only 1%, if the first volume step is funded. (if the second one or third the yield gets even lower)

Another similar Estonian/Russian bank Polybius has a valuation of 25M. (i have a very small ‘play-money’ in it and my personal investment is down ±20%)

Prediction

I will not invest in pre-ico, because it is pure gambling, but i do not say that i will not invest in ico or after ico, when the valuation of company is in range of 10-25M

 

 

Very unprofessional video for a company that claims making 2M of profits per year currently. Antanas Guoga TonyG a very charismatic person, public figure and good speaker this time seems like speaking so difficult to understand for the beginners or the pros. And the interviewer from the marketing reading from the A4 pages looks like unprepared school girl.

 

 

Insane ICO. Insane TenX

TenX hit 0.5 billion valuation today. Insane. I already wrote that TenX is overvalued when it had 80M valuation, but current valuation is Insane for the company that does not have a product yet. And why does TenX have 10-15x higher valuation than Mona.co or Tokencard?

And what i used miss all the time that real valuation is almost 2x, because not all the coins are circulating and current market capitalization is counted only with circulating coins.

 

The crisis may not come any time soon

Everybody agrees that the crisis or correction will come. I can not disagree with that. My idea is that investing (dollar cost averaging) should be more beneficial (Schwab study) than waiting for the crisis to come. It may come but it may be very short and recover very fast. Technically we are in second longest bull market not affected by recession. But the bear market of 1987 was only 3 months.

1987 August 21 the highest was 335.90

1987 December 4 the lowest was 223.92 (33% fall). From that moment The bull market started again.

1989 July 21 it crossed the 335.90 again

Conclusion: timing market is not a good idea.

Prediction: no one knows if crisis will come this year or in next 10 years. And for the reason that there is huge anticipation that the crisis is near, for that reason I would bet that it might not come soon. Reason #2 is that people still remember 2008. Reason #3 People have too much cash and moderate debt (look at the insane ICOs)