The crisis may not come any time soon

Everybody agrees that the crisis or correction will come. I can not disagree with that. My idea is that investing (dollar cost averaging) should be more beneficial (Schwab study) than waiting for the crisis to come. It may come but it may be very short and recover very fast. Technically we are in second longest bull market not affected by recession. But the bear market of 1987 was only 3 months.

1987 August 21 the highest was 335.90

1987 December 4 the lowest was 223.92 (33% fall). From that moment The bull market started again.

1989 July 21 it crossed the 335.90 again

selling bad loans on Bondora secondary market

Last week i have posted all of my defaulted loans on secondary market with a 50% discount. None of them moved out for few days. So i raised the discount to 75% and 78 loans were sold. 85% of them were estonian loans. Only 3 HR Spanish loans.
177 defaulted loans left with total principal of 7404€. My profit in the dashboard is 2845€ with net return 10.55%, by my historical portfolio 8.24% and total portfolio 5.3%.

strategy #3.  total default 24 loans. Total purchased 242.

Full Bondora review

p.s. I do not recommend Bondora for safe, automatic, high return investment. If you do register, please use my referral link

Startup vs ICO. Revolut vs TenX

I have invested in Revolut, my friend invested in TenX. Both have a similar service: free currency exchange bank card

 RevolutTenX
Valuation55M (2016 June)80M (2017 June)
Does it have a product?Yes. 200k users at that time.Not public. 1000 Beta testers.
New users per day15000
Competitive advantageFree currency exchange0.1% cashback on spent cryptocurrency
CompetitorsN26Mona.co

After Revolut announced that it will ad 3 main cryptocurrencies to its app – what is the competitive advantage of TenX then?

What valuation would i give?

5-10M: ±12 times! less than it is now. Competitor Monaco has now a 9M valuation

Farmcrowdy review

Farmcrowdy provides Nigeria’s smallholder farmers with an alternative means to acquire financing to expand or improve their farms by providing them with access to micro-insurance, investors, and buyers. Farmcrowdy’s platform allows potential investors to find farms or crops to invest in and provides them with real-time updates to follow their investments to fruition. Farmcrowdy has a ready market for all supported farm projects and typically presents farm investors with a 15-24% return on investment in 4-12 months.

Executive team:

Onyeka Akumah    –  Co-Founder & CEO

The person is real and i know him from his previous positions in Konga and Jumia, which was a part of Rocket Internet

The interesting thing about his CV is that he has positions in many companies up to 2 years.

The rest of the team

How do you protect my investment?

P2P portfolio 2017 Q2

2017 Q1 review

2017 Q2

Bondora

  1. made few investments with my strategy #3 including not only Spanish loans. 59 Loans bought at secondary market for total of 490€ with average interest rate of 53%
  2. from Stretegy #3 25 loans defaulted out of 148
  3. I analyzed opportunity to create API script for this strategy, but the problem is that Bondora does not allow this ‘search’ functionality and at the moment this can be done only manually. To make 490€ of investments in a quarter took me 30-60 minutes – not that bad ROI per hour spent – i will dedicate this task during Q3 for my assistant and expect to quadruple.
  4. Total defaults 8981€. Total profit 4164€

Mintos

It is totally automated and i like the results. Therefor i will add another 3k in here.

 

I will never buy individual stocks.

After reading a dozen of articles that low cost index funds beat individual stock pickers, i was not convinced, that i can not pick individual stocks better.

I was very bullish on Rocket Internet RKET. I was buying RKET at 15-19€ and selling 19-23€.

Why i am not buying individual stocks anymore:

  1. It takes too much time to monitor the news, rumors and stock price.
  2. There is high risk with individual stocks.
  3. S&P 500 at the same time made +25% compared to mine 19%

Another great example is TV series Billions, that shows stock market manipulation by billionaires.

Warren Buffet 1M bet

2017 Q1 p2p portfolio review

Mintos

 

Bondora

Twino

I removed Twino from that list

  1. the login interface for some reason doesn’t remember the password. So each time i want to login i have to request new one.
  2. I have deposited 2000 during last quarter with auto-invest rules suggested by the support and every time i login i see cash in the account. At the moment 567€ cash in the account